A workshop has several machines. During a typical month, two machines will break down. The probability of more than two machines will break down in a month is

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UPSC IES Electrical 2022 Prelims Official Paper
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  1. 1 - 3e-2
  2. 1 - 4e-2
  3. 1 - 5e-2
  4. 1 - 6e-2

Answer (Detailed Solution Below)

Option 3 : 1 - 5e-2
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ST 1: UPSC ESE (IES) Civil - Building Materials
20 Qs. 40 Marks 24 Mins

Detailed Solution

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Poisson's Distribution:

P (X = r) = 

where, λ = Mean or average value

Calculation:

The probability of more than two machines will breakdown in a month is:

P(X > 2) = 1 – P(X ≤ 2)

P(X > 2) = 1 – 

Given, λ = 2

P(X > 2) = 1 – 

P(X > 2) = 1 - 5e-2

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